Wednesday, 15 December 2010

In The Saddle

Great to have some quality horse racing on last weekend and today at Fairyhouse, god its so much better than having to watch Southwell and Wolves all weather ! Had some decent winners over the past five days and some very close things as well so the month is looking up.

After a successful Cheltenham I picked four yesterday in the 16+ handicaps and had a winner at 14/1 and a placed horse at 20/1. Also got a 9/1 from two selections from Terry.

These big handicaps are easily my most successful types of races and maybe more of what I should concentrate my efforts on. Today just the one big field, the 12.25 where I had the second and fourth and again Terry weighed in with one from two.

Some high class racing then with Hurricane Fly establishing himself as Ireland’s premier Champion Hurdle contender after slamming a fair benchmark in Solwhit who had match fitness on his side, but sad news here as Twist Magic had to be put down after falling at Newbury.

Concerning my comments about football trading thanks to Cassini for giving his views on his blog and the comments he received. Its a difficult one because we obviously all think differently which is why betfair exists. I was just taking an example of a guy on the forum who said what he had done during the game. I was trying to get an idea of his mindset when entering a trade.
With the amount of in play games and liquidity in the markets I think that football has to be part of a traders armoury. My own thinking on the game was that I wouldnt open up any position until I saw the team news, formations and then watched to see how the game was going. If twenty minutes in the game was end to end but 0-0 then I would go in on the over 1.5 market and see how it panned out, I certainly wouldnt be bailing out because a goal at 55 mins would put you in a profitable position, and even one in the 70th minute would give a break even situation.

This particular game finished 0-0 so you could say he was right there,but he counteracted that by doing a chasing trade of laying 0-0 in the full time market.

A good example was last nights game with Hearts and Motherwell which was attacking from the start. With no goals coming I layed under 2.5 goals thirty minutes in and was rewarded with three by the 60th minute. Lucky? Well of course when entering this you need goals to be scored, I did the same in the other live match Charlton v Brentford that finished 0-0 , but it was just absoutely terrible finishing that didnt give me any opportunity to get out. If you saw the game you would know what I mean. This meant I was up in one and down in another, so maybe we are both right ! No I wasnt in the red card market though ...

Cricket starts in the early hours and a draw is definitely not on the cards here. The Waca pitch is known to deteriorate and crack very badly depending on the weather. I fancy Johnson to come back into the Aussie attack and if he can get his direction right he will certainly have the speed to get the ball bouncing around a few heads, a watching brief for me but with a start time of 2.30 am I doubt it will even be that.

Thats it for me until after the weekend, good luck with your betting.

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